Now, a team of local environmental lawyers, builders and economists collaborating through a research hub at Rice University called the Severe Storm Prediction, Education and Evacuation from Disasters, or SSPEED Center, said their biggest fear is a similar disaster happening in the Bay Area.
The SSPEED Center team has plans to build up to a 10,000-acre island in the middle of the bay, titled the Galveston Bay Park Plan, to mitigate the impact of hurricanes and other storms and help protect Houston’s vital petrochemical and shipping industries.
With other Gulf Coast projects planned—and funding still up in the air—researchers with the SSPEED Center hope this project could be a quicker solution to building defenses within the Gulf Coast area.
The big picture
Blake Eskew, chief economic consultant with the SSPEED Center team, cautioned that the estimated $7 billion park plan is still speculative.
Eskew views the GBPP, which was announced by Rice University in May, as a “backstop” to the nearby Coastal Texas Project. That $57 billion project is being carried out by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, but could take around two decades to build out.
While the Coastal Texas Project protects against many storms, Eskew said more extreme storms could push farther west into the less protected Galveston Bay. That is where the Galveston Bay project could help.
“The potential economic and environmental damage from those kinds of storms is so vast that ... it is prudent to design at a higher level,” Eskew said.
Jim Blackburn, an environmental lawyer who leads the GBPP, also warned of “rapid intensification,” when storms strengthen dramatically overnight. He pointed to Hurricane Harvey in 2017 as an example.
Documents show that dredging of the bay provides clay soil to build a 25-foot levee along the ship channel with navigation openings and, eventually, a gate system.
Blackburn said the barrier would serve as protection and recreational space for the area and would be completed in phases.
Yet, Joanie Steinhaus, ocean program director of Turtle Island Restoration Network, questions whether the project is technically feasible, noting that nothing like the proposed mid-bay barrier or gate system has ever been built before.
“I don’t know if a project like ... [the GBPP] has ever been constructed,” Steinhaus said.
The local impact
The GBPP would protect the western side of Galveston Bay, particularly the Houston Ship Channel, which has tens of billions of dollars of industrial infrastructure—what Eskew described as the “lion’s share” of the bay’s economic value.
Eskew estimates that replacing the area’s petrochemical and refining facilities in high-risk areas could cost $50 billion.
Collectively, refineries in the area have 6,000 above-ground storage tanks with a combined capacity of 10 billion gallons of chemicals. If storm surge were to rupture those tanks, leakage into the bay could cause catastrophic damage to the surrounding areas and ecosystems,
Eskew said.
Blackburn also emphasized the stakes.
“My biggest concern is that if those industries get hit by a big storm like that, without adequate protection, we’ll have the worst environmental disaster in the United States’ history,”
Blackburn said.
On the other hand, skeptics like Bob Stokes, president of the Galveston Bay Foundation, have concerns about the project’s potential environmental consequences.
“Any massive infrastructure project ... could very easily wind up impacting salinity,” Stokes said. “It could wind up impacting flow. By definition, it’s this massive footprint.”
Some numbers related to nearby industries include:
- 6K above-ground storage tanks
- 10B gallons of chemicals
- $50B in potential damages o the Houston area's petrochemical and refining facilities
- The project could protect against up to a Category 4 hurricane
Put in perspective
All told, officials hope such a project, when paired with the Coastal Texas Project, would create layered protection for both the Galveston Bay and the surrounding waters, especially Galveston Bay’s western side and the Houston Ship Channel—where most of the area’s petrochemical, refining and industrial infrastructure is concentrated.
Officials estimate that with both projects, storm surge from a Category 4 hurricane could be cut in half across the Clear Lake area, Texas City and the Houston Ship Channel.
“What we’re talking about for Galveston Bay, ... we’re talking about the largest engineering project in the world,” Blackburn said.
What they're saying
“The Rice University Galveston Bay Park Plan is certainly ambitious," League City Mayor Nick Long said. "We fully support any project that reduces the impact of storm surge and look forward to learning more details in the future.”
“Protecting lives, property and economic vitality is our mission, and innovative solutions like this could play an important role in achieving that goal,” said Coalter Baker, executive director of the Gulf Coast Protection District.
“Frankly, a lot of people don’t know the risk, and I don’t think we talk honestly about these risks, and so I’ve studied those risks, and that’s why I’m working on this project," Blakburn said.
The timeline
A May report raised the projected cost from $4.5 billion to $7 billion, accounting for 20% in unforeseen costs and 30% in permitting fees.
At present, however, no funding exists for full construction. Eskew said he hopes the project could secure $3 billion through the Coastal Texas Project, with the remainder potentially supported by the state.
“Because the state has committed to providing 35% of funds for the coastal barrier project, they will provide a similar portion for the GBPP,” Eskew said.
Critics of this funding structure, including Steinhaus, said the proposed funding structure requires local communities to shoulder the burden of protecting the petrochemical and shipping industries, which should invest more in fortifying their own infrastructure.
“Why are we, the general public and our tax dollars, responsible for funding protection for them?” Steinhaus said. “They should be required to fortify their own facilities. ... It should not be a burden for people that live in these communities.”
Meanwhile, the park is still in its early planning stages. Even if the funding for the project is approved and dispensed, coastal residents and local petrochemical and shipping industries won’t see protection in place until the early 2030s, with completion at least a decade out.
The construction schedule also depends on Port Houston’s Project 12, which begins in 2031 and will widen the ship channel, documents show.
